Debate Preview

Some people are predicting a huge Biden win in the debate tonight; some have even gone so far as to say it will be a slaughter. There are 2 reasons I don't think that will happen. First of all, the McCain campaign pushed for a very restrictive format greatly limiting how much each candidate can talk, and greatly limiting exchange between the two candidates- each question can be 2 minutes long, and each candidate response can only be 1 minute in length. Secondly, while undoubtedly Biden has a much firmer grasp on the issues (one could argue having any grasp on issues would be a firmer grasp than Palin), but it would be extremely wrong to assume that the person who "knows the most" in the debate will win. That would be way too reasonable. All too often, it seems like the candidate who knows the least is the one who wins the election (examples below).

Here's my prediction- given the format catered to her lack of knowledge, and her prepping at McCain's ranch in Arizona, I think Palin will fare well for herself. She will make maybe 1 or 2 big gaffes, if any. Mainly, she will stay on message repeating the lines that we've heard over and over from the McCain camp. Oooh, and the hypenated words they love so much can't forget those; I'm sure we'll hear a lot about the Radical Islamo-Extremists and how our country was founded on Judeo-Christian values. The only thing McCain loves more than talking about pork is using words with hyphens.

I think when all is said and done, Biden will have an edge on substance, maybe even only a slight edge because he knows the complexities of the problems Americans face very well, but a minute is scant time to discuss any of those copmlexities. This format is geared towards one-liners. I have no idea why the Obama camp agreed to it. Anyways, Biden has an edge on substance, and I'm predicting that Palin will tie Biden or have a slight edge on style. It's worth noting that my prediction is based on the public & media's perception of who "wins," because I feel in actuality Biden is a more competent debater, has an infinitely more firm grasp on the issues facing America, and is undoubtedly far more qualified than she is.

I'm predicting that after the debate, the narrative will be surprise at how "well" Palin did, because let's face it, expectations of her are so low, she would have to make an almost inconceivably huge gaffe to do as bad or worse than is expected- something to the magnitude of trying to speak about the Declaration of Independence and refer to it as "that thing that our country sent over to England to say we were tired of their malarkey... that letter thing we sent them." Or not being able to name an amendment to the Constitution- but I don't think that would even bury her completely. I mean, Bush & Cheney did get re-elected after using the Constitution as toilet paper and urinal cakes for 4 years.

After the debate, her approval numbers will improve, but not drastically, but it will likely re-energize the republican base, and they will find new things to attack Biden on. There will be some sway back to approval of her from independents but fairly minimal- I'm betting her approval goes up 2-3 points. I think the damage done from her recent interviews is not entirely reversible, but somewhat reversible. In the interviews, I don't think it was entirely her lack of knowledge that hurt her- she could have formulated answers that admitted to not knowing it, but still could have played her off well. For example, on the Supreme Court cases naming, sure it was surprising she couldn't name any Supreme Court case she disagreed w/ apart from Roe v. Wade, but I think where the real damage was done was when she tried to fucking bullshit an answer for 20 minutes. Then it not only reflected poorly on her knowledge of our country, but it reflected poorly on her character, as if she were saying, "I don't know this answer, but I'm too stubborn to admit it, and instead I'll talk in circles for 20 minutes until your head spins and you don't remember the question anymore."

Anyways, on to examples of losing on factuality/knowledge in a debate & winning the election:


Final electoral votes: Bush- 286, Kerry- 251


Final tally: Bush/Quayle- 426, Dukakis/Bentsen- 111


Final tally: Reagan- 489, Carter- 49

This last video is the best example of how Palin could win with style over substance- Carter clearly knew more about the issue discussed, detailing a national health plan, and Reagan just saying he voted for another bill covering the same thing. Then Reagan gave the speech at the end, often cited as the deciding moment in him kicking the shit out of Carter on election day. And if I'm not mistaken, Carter was still ahead in the polls going in to the debate, although it was a tight race, and Reagan went on to beat him by 440 electoral votes and 8.5 million popular votes. Talk about a free-fall.

It's kind of interesting that Carter was talking about national healthcare featuring many, if not all of the features in modern-day proposals in improving our healthcare system (esp. preventetive healthcare) almost 3 decades before it became a big issue in the race today.